Weekly Review of the Lithium Carbonate Market: Lithium Carbonate Prices Fluctuate Upward [SMM Weekly Review]

This week, spot lithium carbonate prices fluctuated upward, with market sentiment recovering somewhat from previous levels. Price-wise, the spot market's center steadily moved higher. The SMM battery-grade lithium carbonate average rose from 92,150 yuan/mt at the start of the week (Nov 24) to 93,300 yuan/mt on Thursday (Nov 27); the industrial-grade lithium carbonate average also climbed from 89,750 yuan/mt to 90,850 yuan/mt over the same period. In the futures market, the most-traded contract completed its rollover. Futures prices showed a sideways movement pattern this week, with the most-traded contract (2605) trading in the range of 95,500-98,700 yuan/mt on Thursday.

Supply side, overall operating rates at lithium chemical plants remained high, with spodumene and salt lake sources still being the primary suppliers. Domestic lithium carbonate production in November is expected to maintain October's level, roughly flat MoM. Demand side exhibited strong momentum. The power battery sector benefited from rapid growth in both commercial and passenger NEV markets, while the ESS market continued its pattern of robust supply and demand, with supply remaining tight, collectively providing solid support for lithium carbonate demand.

Market transactions, downstream material plants showed high sensitivity to price fluctuations. When futures prices were relatively low (e.g., in the 90,000-92,000 yuan/mt range), procurement and pricing activity increased slightly, and market turnover became more active; as prices rose, downstream players returned to a cautious wait-and-see approach, with procurement focused on rigid demand, leading to overall sluggish market turnover.

Looking ahead, battery cell and cathode material enterprises saw production increase slightly in November compared to October. Lithium carbonate inventory is expected to continue decreasing significantly. Supported by both fundamental supply-demand dynamics and market sentiment, lithium prices are expected to hold up well in the short term.